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VOL. 3 (2) - SPRING 2009
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Note from the Editor-In-Chief (p. 120)
Research Papers
Implications of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for International
Law: The Conduct of the Community of States
in Current
Secession Conflicts
(pp.
121-142)
by Heiko Krueger
The European Union’s Eastern Partnership: Chances and Perspectives
(pp. 143-155)
by Marcin Łapczyński
Democratic Transition in Georgia: Post-Rose Revolution Internal
Pressures on Leadership
(pp. 156-171)
by Jesse David Tatum
Decision-Making and Georgia’s Perpetual Revolution: The Case of IDP
Housing
(pp. 172-180)
by Till Bruckner
Victimisation of Female Suicide Bombers: The Case of Chechnya
(pp. 181-188)
by Nino Kemoklidze
Dutch Disease in Uzbekistan? A Computable General Equilibrium Model of
Effects of Foreign Investment into Uzbekistan's Gas Sector
(pp. 189-209)
by Michael P. Barry
How the West Was Won: China’s Expansion into Central Asia
(pp. 210-218)
by Henryk Szadziewski
Comments
Split in the Russian Political Tandem Putin-Medvedev?
(pp. 219-226)
by Eberhard Schneider
Georgia
& Russia: The “Unknown” Prelude to the “Five Day War”
(pp. 227-232)
by Martin Malek
Book Review
“Handbook of International Humanitarian Law” by Dieter Fleck
(pp. 233-236)
Review by Pierre-Emmanuel Dupont
Interviews
“Federalization Remains the Best Way for Georgia to Avoid Outbreaks of
Further Internal Disputes” (pp. 237-241)
Interview with Prof. George Hewitt, London School of Oriental & African
Studies, UK
Note From The
Editor-In-Chief (p. 120)
Since the
publication of the Winter 09 issue events in the Caucasus and the wider
region have continued to shift, which underlines yet again the region’s
critical importance for the wider world. The beginning of Barack Obama’s
tenure as President of the United States has opened up new possibilities
for geopolitical shifts in the Caspian region, as he seeks to press the
reset button with Russia and offer a hand to Iran. The course of these
developments will have a profound effect in the Caucasus and Central
Asia, even without the myriad of factors in play in the region. Turkey
has reasserted itself in the Caucasus, moving towards rapprochement with
Armenia and alienating Azerbaijan. The Nabucco pipeline project looks
increasingly doomed, even as Turkmenistan seeks to free itself from
Russian control. Meanwhile, the conflict in Afghanistan has continued to
cast its ripples over the region…read
more
Research Papers
Implications of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for International
Law: The Conduct of the Community of States in Current Secession
Conflicts
(pp. 121-142)
by Heiko Krueger
The objective of this article is to examine whether the current conduct
of the community of states in the cases of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South
Ossetia has any implications on international law. This question arises
particularly in the case of Kosovo, since many states have recognised
its separation from Serbia. Can the conduct of the community of states
be used as a legal precedent by other groups seeking separation, e.g. in
Azerbaijan, China, Georgia, Moldova, Spain or Ukraine? What if more
states were to recognise Kosovo in the future? The focus of this paper
will be to consider the implications of the conduct of the community of
states on the interpretation of international treaties and customary
international law. In this respect, the conduct of states in the cases
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in August 2008 will also be taken into
account…read
more
The
European Union’s Eastern Partnership: Chances and Perspectives
(pp. 143-155)
by Marcin Łapczyński
The European Union has recently introduced its Eastern Partnership
initiative (EaP) as a tool to enhance the co-operation and support
reforms in its Eastern neighbourhood. The initiative, jointly presented
by Poland and Sweden, was an answer to the French efforts to promote and
strengthen the Mediterranean Union. The initiative involves several
important steps to encourage countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine to build a stable and valuable relationship
with the EU. With the Czech EU Council’s presidency the project has
become a foreign policy priority of the Union and a lot of effort has
been put in the launching and preparations. Nevertheless,
the EU should not take for granted the
partner countries’ support and interest in the EaP and should
permanently work towards ensuring that the offer presented to the
partners is attractive and suited to provide assistance in reforms…read more
Democratic Transition in Georgia: Post-Rose Revolution Internal
Pressures on Leadership
(pp. 156-171)
by Jesse David Tatum
This
article analyses Georgia’s post-Rose Revolution progress in the process
of democratic transition up until the August 2008 war. The focus is on
the role that the incumbent administration plays in this process, and on
the internal pressures that the leadership currently faces. In the light
of some important studies in the democratisation field, this article
considers the extent to which President Saakashvili and his government
represent a clear change in the political order vis-à-vis his two
predecessors. With regard to the crises in November 2007 and August
2008, this period in Georgia’s development as a nation will have a
profound impact on its population, its neighbouring countries and an
area of the world in close proximity to the EU. While Saakashvili has
made admirable progress overall, he still retains a surfeit of power
detrimental to Georgian democracy…read more
Decision-Making and Georgia’s
Perpetual Revolution: The Case of IDP Housing
(pp.
172-180)
by Till Bruckner
Observers
tend to enthuse about Georgia’s leadership or damn it, but such
black-and-white views do little to explain what is really going on in
the country. Examining the government’s recent efforts to provide
housing to those internally displaced by the August 2008 conflict with
Russia sheds light not only on the housing program itself, but on
contemporary Georgian politics in general. In particular, four traits
characteristic of the ruling United National Movement’s revolutionary
governance are brought into focus: informal decision-making, fluid
roles, heroic action, and vanguard politics…read more
Victimisation of Female Suicide Bombers: The Case of Chechnya
(pp. 181-188)
by Nino Kemoklidze
While arguing about why women fight, many believe that these women are
yet other victims in the hands of ruthless men, while others emphasize
the seriousness of a particular conflict where even women are driven
towards taking up arms, seen as a last resort in the eyes of many. Few,
if any, confront this ever present “myth” of victimisation of women who
choose radical forms of fighting. This paper will challenge this
viewpoint and, based on the case of the so-called Black Widows of
Chechnya, will argue that women can take up roles other than that of a
victim in the battlefields; and that they are capable of fighting for a
purpose other than that of a personal tragedy and/or family bereavement…read more
Dutch Disease in
Uzbekistan? A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Effects of Foreign
Investment into Uzbekistan's Gas Sector
(pp. 189-209)
by Michael P. Barry
Uzbek
lawmakers have been working hard to attract foreign investors into
exploration and production in Uzbekistan. This paper will describe these
laws and use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze
their macroeconomic effects on Uzbekistan and beyond. This analysis does
not attempt to quantify the causal relationship between Uzbek laws and
the amount of investment. Instead, the focus of the paper is closer to
the following questions: successful or not, is the Uzbek campaign to
attract foreign investment a good idea at all? Who wins and who loses?
Results of the model suggest that Uzbekistan would be better off overall
from foreign investment in its natural gas sector, due mostly to
improvements in overall production efficiency and terms of trade.
However, the gain in the natural gas sector would come at the expense of
production and net exports of non-petroleum related industries…read more
How the West Was Won:
China’s Expansion into Central Asia (pp. 210-218)
by Henryk Szadziewski
In the
People’s Republic of China, the Great Western Development Drive has been
promoted as a solution to the economic inequalities that exist between
the eastern and western regions of the country. Although the initiative
has overt economic objectives, these are accompanied by political
objectives of internal security in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous
Region, an area also known as East Turkestan. The Great Western
Development Drive also works in conjunction with China’s economic and
political objectives for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As a
bridge to the markets of Central Asia, the Great Western Development
Drive in East Turkestan has built an infrastructure with which China can
export goods and import natural resources. Greater economic cooperation
between Central Asia and China has also permitted the silencing of
Uyghur dissent in Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states. The
net result of China’s expansion into Central Asia for Uyghurs in the
region and in East Turkestan has been economic and political
marginalization, most notably in the visible exclusion from the policies
and projects of the Great Western Development Drive…read more
Comments
Split in the
Russian Political Tandem Putin-Medvedev? (pp. 219-226)
by Eberhard Schneider
There are
signs that the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is gaining his own
profile rather than wishing to remain forever Vladimir Putin’s
hand-picked successor. The catalyst for this process is the financial
and economic crisis. Different individuals and groups surrounding the
president and the prime minister play an important role in this process,
since they try to ensure that their patrons demonstrate a greater
political profile. Putin’s dilemma: If he remains in office, he runs the
risk of being held responsible by the people for his government’s
failure to properly address the crisis. This could lead to the loss of
his reputation, which could cost him the election victory in the case of
his renewed candidacy for the presidency in 2012. If he resigns as prime
minister, he would disappear from the public eye, which would make his
election as president impossible. This would mean that Medvedev would
re-run for the presidency in 2012 and get re-elected for another
five-year term in accordance with the latest constitutional amendment…read
more
Georgia &
Russia: The “Unknown” Prelude to the “Five Day War” (pp. 227-232)
by Martin Malek
The Russian Armed Forces not only expelled invading Georgian troops from
the separatist region South Ossetia, but they also entered Abkhazia and
marched deep into Georgia proper over the course of the “five day war”
in August 2008. The following report analyses Russia’s military
preparations since spring 2008, an aspect hitherto almost unknown among
politicians, the media and the public in Western Europe and North
America. They included the shooting down of a Georgian drone by Russian
fighter jets over Abkhazia, a massive increase of Russian “peacekeeping
troops” along the Georgian-Abkhaz armistice line, the deployment of
Russian railway troops to Abkhazia and the “Kavkaz 2008” military
exercises. These developments occurred against the backdrop of political
events, such as demands made by the Russian State Duma to recognise
South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, Russia’s decision to
withdraw from the CIS economic embargo against Abkhazia and NATO’s
refusal to offer membership to Georgia…read
more
Book Review
“Handbook
of International Humanitarian Law” by Dieter Fleck
(pp.
233-236)
Review by Pierre-Emmanuel Dupont
In the
Handbook’s Introduction, Dieter Fleck
mentions that the first edition, published in German in 1994, was built
upon the German Armed Forces’s (Bundeswehr)
Manual of international humanitarian law (IHL), an account of Germany’s
long-standing involvement in the implementation of International
Humanitarian Law. Yet the present edition, ‘no longer connected to a
single national manual, […] aims at offering a best practice manual to
assist scholars and practitioners worldwide’…read more
Interviews
“Federalization Remains the Best Way for
Georgia to Avoid Outbreaks of Further Internal Disputes” (pp. 237-241)
Interview with Prof. George Hewitt, London School of Oriental &
African Studies, UK
CRIA: In light of a tumultuous past—but with a view to the immediate
future—would
you give your thoughts on national reconciliation between Tbilisi,
Sukhum and Tskhinval (and other parts of Georgia), and how progress
might be best achieved?
Hewitt:
Sukhum and Tskhinval as metonyms for the Abkhazians and (South)
Ossetians respectively, would strenuously object to the implication that
Abkhazia and South Ossetia represent “parts” of a Georgia wherein they
could be parties to any “national” reconciliation. Tbilisi has had no
say in South Ossetian affairs since the war instigated there by
Georgia’s first post-communist leader, the late Zviad Gamsakhurdia,
ended with the Dagomys Agreement in June 1992, just as it has had no say
in Abkhazian affairs since the war imposed on the republic by Eduard
Shevardnadze on 14th August 1992 ended with the expulsion of
Georgian forces at the end of September 1993…read more |
