Central Eurasia
between the “Great Game” and emerging cooperation
Review by
Jan Künzl
Since 1993, China
has been a net importer of oil. With its unparalleled
economic growth over the past two decades, it developed a
huge hunger for resources to sustain its industrial
production. Taking a glance at the interrelation between the
economic growth and the legitimacy of the Chinese communist
regime, it becomes obvious: securing resource flows is a
highly political issue. In his book China’s Energy
Geopolitics: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and
Central Asia, Thrassy N. Marketos places Beijing’s
energy problem in the broader framework of its geopolitical
situation in relation to the Central Eurasian states as well
as Russia and the USA.
The author
vividly explains China’s main political interests. Besides
the task of energy security through diversification of
energy suppliers and transportation routes, there are two
additional tasks of particular importance for Chinese
strategic planners.
First, regional
stability, especially in the turbulent Xinjiang province and
its Central Asian neighbours, is a serious issue. The
Communist Party of China views the claims for autonomy
stated by the Muslim majority of ethnic Uyghurs in Xinjiang
as a direct threat to its territorial integrity, similar to
the Tibet and Taiwan questions. The fact that potential
future energy transportation routes from the resource-rich
Caspian basin will have to cross Xinjiang aggravates this
problem.
Second, China, as
well as Russia, promotes a multipolar world order in its
foreign policy strategy. Accordingly, the direct military
presence of the USA in Central Asia since 9/11 is seen as
another stepping stone of the USA for encircling China. On
the other hand, China is aware of the fact that the
involvement of international forces in the “war on terror”
adds to the stability in the region.
In addition to those
strategic paradigms of the Chinese regime, Marketos explains
Beijing’s different policies vis-ŕ-vis the other regional
actors. It becomes clear that Chinese energy policy follows
mostly geopolitical rather than economic considerations. He
explains in detail the energy resources of the producing
countries Russia, Iran, and the Central Asia states, as well as
the needs of consuming countries such as China, Japan, and those
in the West. Subsequently, he assesses potential and currently
planned options for major transportation routes and their
strategic implications.
The constellation of
interests under analysis provides the necessary framework for
examining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in terms
of its possibilities and limitations. Marketos argues that in
spite of some competing interests in the strategic perceptions
of the SCO members, the situation is far from being a zero-sum
game. There are several issues in which the members have strong
converging interests, e.g. regional stability. According to
Marketos, today the SCO is the sole institution with the
potential to become a nucleus of a broader regional cooperation
regime. However, for such a development the SOC has to open up,
both in terms of its agenda and its membership. The United
States, in particular, should be granted observer status, since
even in this part of the world, formulating effective regional
policy without the US is difficult.
Marketos
provides us with an insightful book. To understand the rise of
China and its emergence as a regional power with potential
superpower ambitions is essential for strategic thinkers around
the world, especially in the West. The book shows how closely
energy politics and geopolitics are interrelated in the Central
Asian region and how important the region is for Chinese
planning, particularly with regard to Xinjiang. This year, the
deterioration of the security situation in Xinjiang has proved
this assumption correct.
Furthermore, the
author’s vote for a strengthening of regional cooperation
mechanisms, with rather than against the United States, could be
a very reasonable means for absorbing geopolitical tensions
related to China’s rise.
Unfortunately the
rich content could have been presented in a more easy-to-read
fashion. The complex analysis is subdivided in only five
chapters, and there are repetitions from time to time. Some
graphs, charts, and tables for the complex data on energy
resources, needs, and transportation opportunities would also
have been helpful.
Nonetheless, this
book can be recommended to academics and experts with a special
interest in energy, Central Asia, China, and geopolitical
relations in this important region.
(pp. 324-325)